Flood Warnings
Current Status
Current Flood Status
THERE ARE NO ACTIVE MESSAGES AT THIS TIME
Lake Erie Flood Watch
Date: Sunday December 28th, 2025 Time: 9:00 AM This notice is intended to advise the public and local municipalities of the condition of the Lake Erie Shoreline as it relates to the Niagara Peninsula and the eastern portion of Haldimand County.
The Niagara Peninsula Conservation Authority is issuing a Lake Erie Flood Watch
A low-pressure system is moving through southern Ontario from the morning of Monday December 29th into the evening, bringing strong westerly winds to the Lower Great Lakes region, particularly in the eastern Lake Erie basin. Sustained westerly winds on Lake Erie are forecast to be between 50 - 60 km/h, with gusts between 80 - 100 km/h Monday afternoon and continuing into the evening.
A significant storm surge is expected at the eastern end of Lake Erie from noon Monday into the evening. Sustained winds across the eastern Lake Erie basin may produce wave heights up to 3.5 to 4.5 m, peaking early Monday afternoon into the evening. Water levels in the eastern basin are expected to rise above current levels by 2m to 175.7masl and will be above the local threshold for flooding.
Residents living along Lake Erie should pay close attention to water levels and waves in their area and are urged to stay away from the shoreline of Lake Erie during this event. Increased erosion and flooding due to the storm surge and strong waves is possible.
The NPCA will continue to monitor these conditions and will issue further messages as required.
This notice is in effect until 9:00 AM, Tuesday, December 30thth, 2025, and will be updated as required.
Watershed Conditions Statement - Flood Outlook Statement
Date: December 27th, 2025 Time: 8:00 PM
For Saturday, December 27th, 2025, this notice is intended to advise the public and local municipalities of flooding within the NPCA’s jurisdiction as it relates to the Niagara Peninsula, the southeastern portion of the City of Hamilton and the eastern portion of Haldimand County.
The watershed is currently under a Rainfall Warning as issued by Environment and Climate Change Canada. A low-pressure system is forecast to move across the lower Great Lakes from Sunday December 28th to Monday December 29th, bringing significant rain to the Niagara Peninsula. Expected rainfall amounts at this time are 40 - 70 mm.
At the present time, water levels in the local watercourses are at or slightly above normal for the Niagara watershed due to recent rain and melt events bringing 5 – 10 mm of rainfall/runoff in the past 36 hours. Frozen surfaces and saturated soils will only exacerbate rainfall runoff for the upcoming precipitation event, increasing risks to flooding and erosion during this event.
Residents are urged to stay away from creeks, rivers and all waterbodies at this time due to slippery slopes, unstable ice and elevated water levels as they can be hazardous. We also encourage residents to ensure drainage on their property is not hindered by blocked culverts, catch basins or ditches. Municipal and Regional staff are also reminded to check local storm sewer infrastructure to ensure its capabilities for this event.
The NPCA will continue to monitor these conditions and will issue further messages as required. Information on the Flood Status in the watershed can be found on the NPCA’s website at:
https://npca.ca/flood-status
https://npca.ca/stream-flow-monitoring
This notice is in effect until 9:00 AM, Tuesday, December 30th, 2025, and will be updated as required.
For further information contact:
Ryan Kitchen
Flood Risk Management Officer
Work: 905-788-3135 x 269
After hours: 905-658-1838
For media inquiries, contact:
Erika Navarro
Communications Supervisor
enavarro@npca.ca
905-650-4027
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What if a Flood Message is Issued for Your Area?
Take heed of the message issued.
Be prepared to follow the advice and instructions of emergency response officials.
Monitoring weather and flood conditions is a shared responsibility of Conservation Authorities, OMNR, and Environment Canada. The OMNR Surface Water Monitoring Centre in Peterborough monitors weather forecasts and water levels across the province, providing the information to Conservation Authorities. Other information is also available from Environment Canada.
Conservation Authorities and the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources are responsible for forecasting where and when flooding is likely to occur and issuing appropriate messages. Advance warning of an impending flood allows municipalities and other government agencies to put emergency response plans into operation, and if necessary, evacuate communities.
When flooding is possible or about to occur, Conservation Authorities (or the Ministry of Natural Resources in areas where there is no Conservation Authority) issue flood messages to municipal emergency management officials and the media. The municipal officials then take action to warn local residents. Flood messages are posted on Conservation Authorities’ websites. In some watersheds, members of the public can receive flood messages directly through e-mail and/or Twitter.
Messages Key
No flood conditions exist
Be informed and aware.
Water Safety Statements: High flows, unsafe banks, melting ice or other factors that could be dangerous for recreational users such as anglers, canoeists, hikers, children, pets, etc. Flooding is not expected.
Flood Outlook Statements: Early notice of the potential for flooding based on weather forecasts calling for heavy rain, snow melt, high wind or other conditions that could lead to high runoff, cause ice jams, lakeshore flooding or erosion
Flooding is possible in specific watercourses or municipalities. Municipalities, emergency services and individual landowners in flood-prone areas should prepare.
Flooding is imminent or already occurring in specific watercourses or municipalities. Municipalities and individuals should take action to deal with flood conditions. This may include road closures and evacuations.